Trump’s Re-election and the EU’s Strategic Dilemma

The re-election of Donald Trump on November 5th as President of the United States (U.S.) has introduced fresh challenges for the European Union (EU) as it faces a more unpredictable and isolationist partner. His prioritization of U.S. interests above all else could deepen the EU’s existing challenges in an increasingly fragmented global order. EU leaders must contend with a revived “America First” policy that strains transatlantic relations and creates an urgent need for strategic autonomy in the EU.

Trump’s approach to international politics is anything but conventional. His disdain for multilateralism, and a strong focus on advancing U.S. interests, present the EU with a series of points of conflict. From defence and trade to climate change and the war in Ukraine, his policies could force the EU to take on a leadership role it has long avoided, testing its unity and resilience.

As Trump resumes his position as the leader of the free world—though now a leader with little interest in cooperation—the EU must prepare for a geopolitical landscape that is less stable and more competitive. This is not just a test of European diplomacy but a defining moment for its ambitions of strategic autonomy.

Over the coming years, the EU must decide whether to step into the global leadership void left by Trump’s isolationism—or risk being sidelined in a world shaped by power politics and shifting alliances.

Fractures In The International Scene: A Test For EU Unity

An Urgent Call For The EU: NATO And Defence Autonomy

Trump’s criticism of NATO, which he has characterized as a burden on the U.S., poses a significant challenge to the EU defence strategy. The re-elected President has consistently demanded that member states meet their 2% GDP defence spending commitments, implying that U.S. protection may be withheld from those who do not comply. While a full U.S. exit from NATO remains improbable, Trump’s stance could undermine the alliance’s cohesion, pressuring European nations to reinforce their defence independently.

The move toward an independent EU defence policy, however, is complicated. Member states have started to increase defence budgets, but creating a unified strategy for continental defence has been slow and filled with setbacks. Divergent national interests and economic costs add to the complexities of consolidating EU defence. Without the “protective hand” of the U.S., the EU faces the prospect of making massive investments in its military capabilities, a path that, while ambitious, remains challenging to execute. 

Ukraine: A Strategic Dilemma Amid U.S. Retreat

The war in Ukraine, which once united the U.S. and the EU in providing aid to Kyiv, now hangs in the balance. Trump’s opposition to continued support for Ukraine, along with a Republican Congress inclined to cut such aid, raises critical concerns for the EU. If the EU assumes responsibility for supporting Ukraine in the absence of U.S. assistance, it will face both financial strain and heightened security risks. Yet, failing to do so could allow Russia to fortify its influence in Eastern Europe, potentially destabilizing the region, leaving Ukraine vulnerable, and isolating the EU in its security efforts. 

This reality confronts the EU with a stark choice: either bear the considerable costs of defending Ukraine or accept the risk of a diminished role in Eastern Europe, where Russian influence would likely grow. Acting independently of the U.S. on Ukrainian support could symbolize a bold move towards European leadership in the region. Trump’s pivot forces the EU to rethink its approach to Eastern European security and Russian relations.

Shifting Alliances: Trump’s Impact on the Middle East and Europe

In the Middle East, Trump’s close alignment with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu could intensify regional tensions. His approach, which prioritizes Israeli interests over Palestinian aspirations, might exacerbate divisions within the EU, as member states hold varying positions on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Either way, this does not alter the situation compared to what might have occurred under a Democratic victory; however, Trump’s stance on the Middle East is significantly more assertive and uncompromising.

The EU’s foreign policy unity, already tested by the war in Ukraine, could face further strain as Trump’s administration realigns alliances with far-right, nationalist leaders worldwide. This shift could embolden leaders sympathetic to Trump to develop and carry out policies along the lines of the US leader, deepening ideological rifts within the EU.

EU’s Green Agenda In Jeopardy? 

Trump’s promise to re-withdraw the U.S. from the Paris Agreement and dismantle climate policies like the Inflation Reduction Act could also hinder the EU’s green ambitions. As a global leader in climate policy, the EU faces an increased burden to uphold international environmental standards without U.S. support. His pivot to fossil fuels, particularly oil and gas, would challenge the EU’s efforts to reduce emissions and transition to green energy. Without U.S. collaboration, the EU’s climate ambitions become more costly and complicated, potentially stalling its green transition.

European leaders face the dual challenge of covering both the financial and technical void left by the U.S. on climate issues. If Trump’s administration reduces its commitment to sustainability, the EU might struggle to meet its ambitious targets and maintain its leadership in climate diplomacy.

Trade War On The Horizon

Trump’s protectionist agenda poses severe risks for the EU, whose economy depends on transatlantic trade. With the imposition of tariffs of up to 20% on global imports and 60% on Chinese goods, the eurozone stands to lose a critical market for its exports. The economic fallout could be significant, especially as inflation continues to affect both the EU and the U.S. In response, Brussels might implement its own counter-tariffs, risking a trade war that could damage both economies. 

This trade confrontation, however, goes beyond tariffs.  To mitigate these effects, the EU may look to diversify trade partnerships, exploring opportunities in Asia and Latin America to reduce its reliance on the U.S. However, shifting these complex economic ties would be time-consuming and costly, and the extent to which the EU can replace U.S. markets remains uncertain.

Social Media In Political Strategy 

The 2024 U.S. election highlighted the role of strategic social media campaigning and targeted outreach to diverse demographic groups—lessons the EU can apply in its own political landscape. Both Harris and Trump used platforms like podcasts and social media endorsements from high-profile influencers to mobilize voter turnout. 

Developing a consistent social media presence, crafting engaging personas for candidates, and securing public endorsements could be instrumental in capturing the attention of a diverse and often disillusioned voter base.  The EU’s own social media campaigns have gradually adopted these approaches, aiming to raise awareness about EU institutions and political priorities. However, for such campaigns to resonate, they must continuously evolve to reflect the EU’s diversity of political contexts and voter priorities. Adapting U.S. campaign strategies to the EU’s unique political landscape could help close the gap between institutions and citizens, ultimately strengthening democratic engagement within the bloc.

What Lies Ahead: an EU Strategic Autonomy

Trump’s re-election has revived calls for EU strategic autonomy in both defence and economic policy, though the EU is far from a consolidated response. The unpredictability of Trump’s administration complicates EU decision-making, especially given the rise of right-wing populism within its own borders. The Franco-German axis, traditionally a stabilizing force in EU politics, is now in flux, with internal challenges in both France and Germany.

As Trump’s influence on global affairs grows, the EU must respond proactively. While reactionary tariffs and defence policies may provide short-term solutions, the EU’s long-term strategy must include diversifying trade partners, strengthening internal unity, and championing climate efforts independently. The lessons of Trump’s first term may prove invaluable, though the EU will need to adapt quickly and cohesively to withstand the impact of his second.

Rocio Rivera Torrente is Editor-in-Chief (ENG) of Eyes on Europe and master student at the Institute of European Studies.